Hurricane season officially begins Monday, June 1, and while federal forecasters are predicting a below-normal season, Virginia emergency officials and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration alike are urging residents not to let their guard down.
NOAA's National Weather Service is forecasting a 55% chance of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. The agency predicts 8-14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, three-six are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 1-3 major hurricanes — category 3, 4, or 5 storms with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA has 70% confidence in these ranges.
A developing El Niño — a climate pattern caused by warmer waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean — is a factor behind the quieter outlook. The warmer water disrupts weather patterns, especially during winter, leading to more rain in the south, less snow to the north, and an increased threat of drought in the Midwest.
In the summer, El Niño events increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which suppresses hurricane activity.
Watch related: How the upcoming El Niño will impact Hampton Roads
However, competing factors create some uncertainty. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal, and trade winds are likely weaker than average — both conditions that support a more active season, NOAA says.
"Although El Niño's impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold," NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. "That is why it's essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season."
The Virginia Department of Emergency Management echoes that message, urging residents to make a plan now. Officials say it does not require a detailed written document — simply sitting down with your family to talk about evacuation routes can help. They warn that the worst time to plan is when a storm is already on the way.
Watch related: Expert shares advice, common misconceptions ahead of hurricane season
Residents are also encouraged to review their home and auto insurance policies to understand exactly what is covered, especially in areas where flooding could be an issue.
State leaders are also preparing for severe weather. Readiness summits are being held across the commonwealth to help local agencies figure out how to share resources during a disaster.
Residents can find tips to build an emergency kit at vaemergency.gov. Additional preparedness resources are available at weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov.
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